Industrial production in Poland in April was much below expectations. Sold production of industrial enterprises increased by 13 percent in April 2022. compared with the same month last year. In monthly terms, there was a decrease by 11.3 percent.
Lower industrial production in Poland reading
Analysts expected a higher reading of 16.1 percent year on year growth – reports the Central Statistical Office (GUS).
According to the Office, in April the production of energy-related goods increased the most (by 27.3%). The production of capital goods or intermediate goods increased, while the production of durable consumer goods decreased – by 1.2 percent.
In the entire period from January to April, sold production of the Polish industry was by 15.1 percent. higher compared to the same period last year.
The increase in production in April at a level close to the reading was forecasted by, among others, mBank’s economists. Before the data from the Central Statistical Office, they indicated:
“We keep repeating that the observed production boom above the trend is unsustainable. We forecast an increase in sold industrial production at 12.6%. Every year.
May be a good signal for the Polish economy
They also indicate that lower than expected data on production may be a good signal for the Polish economy.
In turn, analysts of PKO BP bank pointed out that a very high reading could be an argument for the MPC for another large interest rate hike.
ING economists point to the potential reasons for the slower growth rate in Polish industry:
“Some industries have experienced problems with the supply of materials for production. The main risk for the industry prospects are disruptions in the supply chains as a consequence of military actions in the East and the Zero-Covid policy in China. The price shock related to Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine continued to mean increased energy commodity prices. At the same time, prices in food processing are clearly rising.”