S&P Global Ratings lowered the GDP growth forecast in Poland for 2022 to 3.6% compared to the 5% expected earlier, results from the shortened – out of cycle – global macro forecast of the S&P Global Ratings agency, prepared in response to market events related to the conflict Russia- Ukraine. S&P is btw not the only firm who has lowered their GDP forecast for Poland this year
The forecast for 2023 was lowered by 0.1 percentage point. to 3.2%, and the forecast for 2024 was increased by 0.3 percentage points. up to 2.7%.
Euro area will decline by 1.2%
“Europe is the region most affected by the conflict. Economic growth in the euro area will decline by 1.2% due to dependence on Russia and much more expensive energy imports, and economic growth remains largely unchanged between 2023 and 2024. Inflation jumps by 2% ” says the report.
The GDP growth rate in the euro area will amount to 3.2% against the earlier forecast of 4.4% and 2.4% in 2023 and 1.9% in 2024. The average annual inflation in the euro area will amount to 5.1% this year.
Annual inflation in Poland 8.5% this year
According to the agency’s forecasts, the average annual inflation in Poland will amount to 8.5% in 2022.
“Global economic growth will decline by 70 basis points this year to 3.4% from our previous baseline forecast. This decline is mainly driven by slower growth in Russia, followed by energy prices and changes in data and policy, ”the report says.
In the United States, economic growth this year will be 0.7 pp. lower than previously forecasted and will amount to 3.2%, with a slight impact of slower growth in Russia, it was also reported.
Changes in US economic policy and energy prices are slowing growth. Inflation this year will accelerate to 6% in the US.