The Monetary Policy Council raised interest rates last week to 6.5 percent. Will there be further interest rate hike ahead ? Experts disagree. But at least over the summer, interest rates will not rise.
By the decision of the MPC on Thursday, the basic interest rate of the National Bank of Poland increased by 50 bp. to 6.5 percent. On Friday, the decision was commented on by the chairman of the council and the president of the NBP, Adam Glapiński.
Will interest rates rise?
Since October, interest rates have been raised ten times, month after month. Is this the end of increases? – We are waiting for the economy to react to what we have done. We are ready for further action – said Glapiński .
“If necessary, we will continue to raise rates as announced. If inflation rises, we will raise it” – added the NBP president.
Experts are divided. – This is not the end of monetary policy tightening. Further interest rate increases are to be expected – says Prof. Marian Noga, former member of the Monetary Policy Council. Ebury analyst Roman Ziruk has a similar opinion.
In his opinion, after the holidays, we can expect further increases, he says for RMF FM. He added that it is difficult to say when the monetary tightening cycle will end.
On the other hand, Mariusz Zielonka, an economic expert of the Lewiatan Confederation, believes that the July rate hike may be the last one. “This should be the last interest rate hike this year. The decisive ones will be the nearest readings of data on industry, labour market, foreign trade and, to a lesser extent, inflation, which will probably record growth again,” commented the expert.
“There is unfavourable data coming from the economy recently, pointing to the possibility of a recession, but the peak of inflation is still ahead of us, and prices will continue to rise in the coming months. The maximum level of inflation will amount to 17-18 percent,” writes Paweł Majtkowski, an eToro analyst.
When is the next interest rate hike?
Whether there will be another hike depends on what the economic performance will be. But it certainly won’t happen in the next two months.
The MPC now has a break in its meetings. The next interest rate hike is therefore waiting for the holiday at the earliest, as the next meeting of the Council will not be held on September 7.