Consumption in Poland higher than expected, but sentiment is weak

Retail sales in April broke the forecasts of economists, but they dampen the optimism anyway, forecasting deterioration of results in the coming months. Research on the economic situation shows that the mood of Polish consumers is the worst since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020.

Constant prices in April 2022 were way higher

Retail sales at constant prices in April 2022 were higher than the year before by 19.0%. (compared to an increase of 21.1% in April 2021). Compared to March 2022, there was a decrease in retail sales by 0.1%. – GUS reported today, Monday.

The data turned out to be better than expected. Economists surveyed by PAP Biznes expected an increase of 17.8 percent. year on year and a decrease of 0.5 percent by March.

The companies from the “textiles, clothing, footwear” group can boast the highest increase in sales – by 121.4 percent. compared to an increase of 75.9 percent. a year ago.

In the groups “press, books, other sales in specialised stores” a jump by 38.2 percent was recorded), “furniture, radio, household appliances” – 27.9 percent. and “other” (for example jewellery) – by 21.2 percent.

The decline was further recorded by outlets selling motor vehicles, motorcycles and parts by 11.2%.

Online consumption goes down in some areas

After eliminating the influence of seasonal factors, retail sales in constant prices in April were down 0.8%. lower than in March this year. From January to April 2022, it increased by 10.8% year-on-year. (compared to an increase of 6.4% in 2021).

Compared to March, the value of online retail sales decreased by 4%. Its share decreased from 9.4%. in March this year. up to 8.9 percent in April this year.

Declines were shown by entities classified into the following groups:

  • “Newspapers, books, other sales in specialised stores” – from 23.4 percent. a month ago to 21.0 percent.
  • “Textiles, clothing, footwear” respectively with 26.7 percent. up to 24.4 percent
  • “Furniture, radio, household appliances” with 18.2 percent up to 17.4 percent

Worst economic situation since the outbreak of the pandemic

High growth rate of retail sales in April this year. compared to the same month of the previous year it was related to, inter alia, with trade restrictions in place in April last year due to the COVID-19 epidemic , the Central Statistical Office noted in a press release.

The Polish Economic Institute expects a decline in trade results in the coming months.

The purchasing power of consumers is growing at a low pace due to high inflation. Additionally, further increases in interest rates limit household spending. As a result, the GUS business climate survey shows that spending plans are as weak as at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic – we read in the commentary.

Source: Spidersweb


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