The Central Statistical Office published inflation data for October 2022. The index is even higher than in September and has not been recorded higher since 1996.
Consumer inflation was 17.9 percent on an annual basis in October 2022, according to a flash estimate of data, the Central Statistical Office reported. Compared to the previous month, the prices of consumer goods and services increased by 1.8%, the Central Statistical Office also reported. The market consensus was 18% on an annual basis.
“Prices of consumer goods and services according to a quick estimate, in October 2022, compared to the same month last year, increased by 17.9% (price index 117.9), and compared to the previous month they increased by 1.8% (price index 101.8), ”reads the press release.
The prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 21.9% y/y, energy carriers – increased by 41.7 percent y/y, fuels for private means of transport increased by 19.5%. y/y, stated in the release. In monthly terms, the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 2.7%, energy carriers increased by 2%, while fuels for private means of transport decreased by 4.1%, the report also said.
Inflation has gone up since March 2021
Inflation in Poland has been growing almost continuously since March 2021. Today the Central Statistical Office will release data for October, which may again be higher than last month. Let us recall that in September, consumer inflation reached 17.2%.
May reach 20 percent
Many experts indicate that inflation in Poland may continue to grow until the end of the first quarter of 2023. The scenario of reaching the level of 20% is also repeated more and more often. However, economists predict even 18 percent for October, which would mean the highest reading since 1996, when the Central Statistical Office reported 18.6 percent.
Economists also remind us that we may soon begin receiving readings that give a false sense of falling prices for goods and services. The inflation index will slow down, as the data in the coming months will refer to increasingly higher levels already recorded at the end of 2021 and at the beginning of 2022.
– We have standard culprits, i.e. energy carriers that grow above 40 percent. Every year. But core inflation (the core of the inflation basket excluding energy, food and fuels) accelerated to around 10.7-10.8 percent compared to 9.8 in the previous month.
This is a sharp increase that does not fill us with optimism for the coming months, explained Krystian Jaworski, economist at Credit Agricole, immediately after the announcement of the September results.
Inflation driven by energy prices
High energy prices, which luckily for European economies are gradually stabilising, continue to be one of the main drivers of price increases in many sectors. Therefore, it can be expected that until the situation in international markets is completely under control, inflation will remain at the inflated levels.