The National Bank of Poland presented the inflation projection for July. The information is not positive. Double-digit inflation will stay with us next year.
Inflation in 2022 will reach its peak aand then it will slowly start to decline – claims the National Bank of Poland in the latest projection. The analysis for July also shows that Poles have to get used to double-digit inflation, as they will stay with us for longer. In 2023, inflation is expected to amount to 12.3 percent.
Inflation peaked close to 19 percent
Interestingly, the assumptions about the moment when inflation will be the highest have also been changed. Until now, it was said that this would happen in summer or in September. The latest NBP projection shows that it will happen in the first quarter of 2023.
National Bank of Poland: inflation will reach 17.9% in 2022
According to forecasts, in the fourth quarter of 2022, inflation will reach 17.9%, and in the first three months of 2023 it may reach 18.8%. Then it will start to decline, to drop to 6.7% in the fourth quarter.
“Price-setting processes are still under the influence of a strong negative supply shock, amplified by the effects of Russia’s armed aggression against Ukraine. It is expressed by high prices of energy and agricultural commodities on world markets, increased prices of CO2 emission allowances and prolonged tensions in global supply networks.
The currently observed high level of inflation is also influenced – albeit to a lesser extent – by factors of a demand nature. They are associated with a strong recovery in economic activity after the COVID-19 pandemic, which is reflected in a positive output gap (2.4% of potential GDP in Q2 2022), ” the NBP forecast reads.