Consumer inflation in Poland could reach single-digit levels in August and will continue to decline. It will reach 7.9-8.1 percent in November, predicts Henryk Wnorowski, member of the Monetary Policy Council (RPP).
Single-digit inflation in August?
– Until recently, until July 31, I myself was sure that in August it would be a single-digit inflation. On the other hand, the July reading surprised me a bit negatively, because the reading decreased by only 0.7 percentage points.
So if this were to happen again, we would have 10.1 percent, which is still double-digit inflation. But it certainly won’t happen again. Personally, I still hope it will be more and I hope it will be a “9” in front. But if it is “10”, then some small number after this “10” – said Wnorowski on TVP Białystok.
He stressed that one can be sure that August will be the sixth consecutive month when the reading is lower. Inflation is heading towards the central bank’s target (2.5 percent with a deviation of 1 percentage point), but – as he added – we will achieve it only after some time .
– This year I’m counting on the December-November reading – because the December one may not make much progress again – with “7” in front, maybe 7.9 percent, maybe 8.1 percent. – these are the sizes I expect myself. Later, however, we talk about average annual inflation and in 2023, unfortunately, it will still be above 10% and even above 11%. – added the MPC member.
Positive real interest rates?
In the perspective of a year, we will see positive real interest rates, he also stressed.
According to the Central Statistical Office (GUS), consumer inflation amounted to 10.8 percent in July per year. In June it was 11.5 percent.
According to the central path of the July inflation projection of the National Bank of Poland (NBP), consumer inflation in the second quarter of this year will amount to 13.1 percent. compared to the previous year. In the following quarters, it is to be 10.3 percent. and 7.8 percent in the fourth quarter. Throughout 2023, average annual inflation will amount to 11.9 percent.
Source: ISB News
