The experts of the National Bank of Poland have no doubts. The war in Ukraine will also have a negative impact on the Polish economy.
The central forecast on GDP dynamics, conducted by the National Bank of Poland among 21 expert analysts in March 2022, assumes an increase of 3.9%. in 2022, followed by an increase of 3.2%. in 2023 and 2024, according to the NBP report. In the previous December-January edition of the survey, the central forecast predicted an increase of 4.3%. in 2022 and 4 percent. in 2023
“Analysing the aggregated distribution of GDP growth forecasts from the current round of the survey, it can be concluded that in comparison to the previous quarter, the GDP growth prospects, in the opinion of the NBP AM experts, slightly deteriorated.
Forecast for the GDP in 2022 is 3.9%
The central forecast for 2022 is 3.9%, and for 2023 and 2024 it is 3.2%. Typical scenarios of future GDP growth indicate that the Polish economy will grow at a rate of between 2.8 percent. and 4.6 percent in 2022, between 1.9% and 4.3 percent in 2023 and between 1.8 percent. and 4.5 percent in 2024 ” the report says.
In the opinion of economists, there is a clear difference between the postandemic economic rebound before the start of the war in Ukraine and what they forecast after more than a month of the Russian invasion.
National Bank of Poland experts assess the economy this often
The survey is conducted four times a year: in the last two weeks of March, June, September and December. The last round of the NBP Macroeconomic Survey was held on March 9-22, 2022. It was attended by 21 experts representing financial institutions, research and analysis centres as well as employee and employer organisations.
The National Bank of Poland is not the only organisation that has lowered its GDP forecast for Poland.